Drop into a skill folder
Personal: ~/.claude/skills/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/SKILL.md
Project: .claude/skills/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/SKILL.md
Brali Agent Skill · practical · usable
Check Whether a Streak Changes the Next Event
Before acting on a streak, identify whether earlier outcomes can change the next event and use a pre-defined decision rule rather than a story about what is due.
Portable instruction
What the agent should do
Describe the next event and the recent streak. Ask what carries information or state from earlier outcomes into the next one. If there is no connection, ignore the streak and use the same probability or decision rule. If a connection may exist, identify the relevant state and gather that information. Use a pre-defined stop rule for repeated high-cost decisions.
Check-in
What connection did I identify between past and next events, and did my action follow the rule or merely the feeling that an outcome was due?
Install
One portable file, host-specific location.
Inspect SKILL.md first. The evidence state and skill mode are part of the contract.
Install for normal use.
Install directly from this URL
hermes skills install https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/SKILL.mdPlace in a discovered skill root
Workspace: <workspace>/skills/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/SKILL.md
Global: ~/.openclaw/skills/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/SKILL.md
Brali verification
Coverage and trust state are checked together.
Canonical ID: brali:avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds
Evidence state: practical
Skill mode: usable
Recommendation eligible: yes
SHA-256: b0e3f93abfbbb08fbd6b5332309f1616c180c46e67bb793ea32b53b7264e766f
Brali CI verified. This means identity, state, mode, provenance and file integrity matched the generated corpus. It is not third-party vendor endorsement.
Why every hack gets a skill
Brali keeps a one-to-one machine surface: one hack record, one stable skill identity. Trust state determines what the skill is allowed to do.
License
Original Brali knowledge is available for non-commercial reuse under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Keep attribution, canonical record link, evidence state and skill mode.