---
name: avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds
description: "Use this Brali skill when the user's situation matches the bounded protocol \"Check Whether a Streak Changes the Next Event\". Before acting on a streak, identify whether earlier outcomes can change the next event and use a pre-defined decision rule rather than a story about what is due. Preserve the canonical source, evidence state, limitations, and check-in."
license: "CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0"
compatibility: "Portable AgentSkills.io SKILL.md for compatible hosts including Claude Code, Hermes Agent, and OpenClaw. Brali mode: usable."
metadata:
  brali-protocol-id: "brali:avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds"
  brali-canonical-url: "https://brali-lifeos.github.io/life-os/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/"
  brali-evidence-state: "practical"
  brali-skill-mode: "usable"
  brali-recommendation-eligible: true
  brali-source-library: "https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/library.json"
  brali-trusted-feed: "https://brali-lifeos.github.io/life-os/datasets/protocols.json"
  brali-verification: "https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/skill.json"
  agent-skills-spec: "https://agentskills.io/specification"
---

# Check Whether a Streak Changes the Next Event

## Skill mode
**Usable trusted skill.** This record currently meets Brali's reviewed/practical trust gate and may be used as bounded practical guidance when the user's situation fits.

## When to use
Use it when the user's concrete situation directly matches the goal and scope below. Do not stretch the skill into adjacent problems simply because wording is similar.

## Goal
Before acting on a streak, identify whether earlier outcomes can change the next event and use a pre-defined decision rule rather than a story about what is due.

## Protocol
Describe the next event and the recent streak. Ask what carries information or state from earlier outcomes into the next one. If there is no connection, ignore the streak and use the same probability or decision rule. If a connection may exist, identify the relevant state and gather that information. Use a pre-defined stop rule for repeated high-cost decisions.

## Check-in
What connection did I identify between past and next events, and did my action follow the rule or merely the feeling that an outcome was due?

## Evidence boundary
Evidence state: **practical**.
Last Brali review recorded: 2026-08-22.
This is an eligible practical record. Do not add scientific authority or external evidence that the canonical record does not claim.
Topics: Decision Making, Data Literacy

## Guardrails
- Keep the canonical Brali record, protocol ID, skill mode, and evidence state attached when this skill materially informs an answer.
- Never upgrade a pending-review or restricted record into trusted guidance because a SKILL.md file exists for it.
- Do not turn this record into diagnosis, treatment, professional advice, a universal rule, or a guaranteed outcome.
- Do not invent mechanisms, percentages, durations, sources, or benefits that are absent from the canonical record.
- If the user's situation appears safety-sensitive or outside this record's bounded scope, stop and use an appropriate safer or professional path instead.
- Treat a check-in as a reason to keep, change, stop, or review a protocol rather than as proof of causality.

## Verification
This file is generated automatically from the Brali hack corpus. Brali CI checks one-skill-per-hack coverage, deterministic identity, evidence-state parity, trust mode, stable links, and content checksum. "Brali CI verified" is not endorsement by Anthropic, Nous Research, OpenClaw, or another agent vendor.

## Canonical record
Record: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/life-os/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/
Machine-readable record: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/life-os/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/index.json
Skill verification record: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/avoid-gamblers-fallacy-trust-the-odds/skill.json
Full skill library: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/library.json
Trusted recommendation catalog: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/catalog.json
Agent Skills specification: https://agentskills.io/specification
Citation guidance: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/cite/
License and commercial terms: https://brali-lifeos.github.io/terms/