Focus & Action · Topic

Decision Making

Structure choices under uncertainty and update decisions when evidence changes.

• Compare Two Approaches and Learn From the ResultWhen a decision is reversible, compare two approaches around one clear question, keep the outcome you care about visible, and avoid treating a tiny informal comparison as statistic
• Use AI to Widen the Option Set, Not Make the DecisionWhen a decision feels binary or prematurely settled, ask AI for plausible alternatives, missing criteria, and arguments against your current favorite. Verify factual claims indepen
• AI-Assisted PremortemUse an AI model as a brainstorming partner for possible failure modes, then verify important risks against the real plan before choosing mitigations.
• Judge Each Option Against the Same CriteriaDefine the decision criteria before comparing options, assess each option on its own and only then compare the results.
• Check Whether a Streak Changes the Next EventBefore acting on a streak, identify whether earlier outcomes can change the next event and use a pre-defined decision rule rather than a story about what is due.
• Check Whether Familiarity Is Driving a Low-Stakes ChoiceFor an ordinary low-stakes choice, name the familiar default, state the criterion that matters, compare one viable alternative, and keep or change the default for a concrete reason
• Draw Two Circles; One for Factors You Can Control and Another for Those YouDraw two circles; one for factors you can control and another for those you cannot. Set clear, achievable goals based on what’s within your control.
• Record What Would Change Your Confidence Before You CommitState your current confidence in plain language, record the main support and unknowns, name an observable fact that would change the judgment, then compare the expectation with wha
• Run One Disconfirming Check Before a Consequential CommitmentBefore an ordinary consequential commitment, state the assumption you currently favor, name one observable condition that would weaken it, check that condition directly, and update
• Before You Commit to a Judgment, Consider the OppositeWhen a judgment matters and you already feel convinced, deliberately generate a plausible explanation, evidence pattern, or outcome that would point the other way. Use it as a bias
• Check the Operating Context Before Reusing a DecisionBefore applying a familiar solution, state what changed, identify the people and system constraints that matter, separate verified facts from assumptions, and choose a reversible n
• Separate Controllable Actions From Dependencies and OutcomesFor a concern or desired outcome, separate actions you can directly perform from dependencies you can influence or only observe, choose one concrete next action, and define how wai
• Decision Calibration JournalBefore an uncertain decision, record your expectation, confidence, and key assumption. Later compare them with the outcome and update how you make similar choices.
• When Feeling Overwhelmed or Upset, Pause and Take Three Deep Breaths Before ReactingWhen feeling overwhelmed or upset, pause and take three deep breaths before reacting.
• Use Elimination Rules to Narrow a DecisionDefine a few decision constraints, eliminate options that clearly fail them, then compare the smaller remaining set without pretending arbitrary thresholds are universal rules.