Drop into a skill folder
Personal: ~/.claude/skills/clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown/SKILL.md
Project: .claude/skills/clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown/SKILL.md
Brali Agent Skill · practical · usable
Clarify Probabilities
To improve judgment: - Break it down: Divide events into clear, mutually exclusive parts. - Add them up: Compare individual probabilities to the total likelihood. - Check your math: Avoid underestimating by verifying if the sum makes sense. Example: When assessing risks for a project, split them into categories (e.g., budget, time, resources) and evaluate each separately.
Portable instruction
What the agent should do
To improve judgment: - Break it down: Divide events into clear, mutually exclusive parts. - Add them up: Compare individual probabilities to the total likelihood. - Check your math: Avoid underestimating by verifying if the sum makes sense. Example: When assessing risks for a project, split them into categories (e.g., budget, time, resources) and evaluate each separately.
Check-in
Check in when you clarify probabilities for better decision-making.
Install
One portable file, host-specific location.
Inspect SKILL.md first. The evidence state and skill mode are part of the contract.
Install for normal use.
Install directly from this URL
hermes skills install https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown/SKILL.mdPlace in a discovered skill root
Workspace: <workspace>/skills/clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown/SKILL.md
Global: ~/.openclaw/skills/clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown/SKILL.md
Brali verification
Coverage and trust state are checked together.
Canonical ID: brali:clarify-probabilities-risk-breakdown
Evidence state: practical
Skill mode: usable
Recommendation eligible: yes
SHA-256: 73758c99a76dd88dc801d22a880e59f29d2adbd68bfed50eab0913de121826be
Brali CI verified. This means identity, state, mode, provenance and file integrity matched the generated corpus. It is not third-party vendor endorsement.
Why every hack gets a skill
Brali keeps a one-to-one machine surface: one hack record, one stable skill identity. Trust state determines what the skill is allowed to do.
License
Original Brali knowledge is available for non-commercial reuse under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Keep attribution, canonical record link, evidence state and skill mode.