Drop into a skill folder
Personal: ~/.claude/skills/check-base-rates-before-deciding/SKILL.md
Project: .claude/skills/check-base-rates-before-deciding/SKILL.md
Brali Agent Skill · practical · usable
Check a Relevant Baseline Before Interpreting One Case
For an ordinary data-informed decision, define the relevant reference class, find a comparable baseline, inspect its scope and denominator, then combine that general context with the facts that are specific to the case.
Portable instruction
What the agent should do
State the decision, define the reference class, find a baseline with a clear denominator and scope, check whether it is comparable to the current case, add the case-specific information that genuinely differs, and keep the conclusion tentative when the baseline or fit is weak.
Check-in
What reference class did I use, where did its baseline come from, how comparable is it to this case, and which case-specific fact could justify departing from it?
Install
One portable file, host-specific location.
Inspect SKILL.md first. The evidence state and skill mode are part of the contract.
Install for normal use.
Install directly from this URL
hermes skills install https://brali-lifeos.github.io/skill-packs/check-base-rates-before-deciding/SKILL.mdPlace in a discovered skill root
Workspace: <workspace>/skills/check-base-rates-before-deciding/SKILL.md
Global: ~/.openclaw/skills/check-base-rates-before-deciding/SKILL.md
Brali verification
Coverage and trust state are checked together.
Canonical ID: brali:check-base-rates-before-deciding
Evidence state: practical
Skill mode: usable
Recommendation eligible: yes
SHA-256: d50bce5cc1b298b8f507308b5953d2620e8306e3495697ae5c7b362eb9d770bf
Brali CI verified. This means identity, state, mode, provenance and file integrity matched the generated corpus. It is not third-party vendor endorsement.
Why every hack gets a skill
Brali keeps a one-to-one machine surface: one hack record, one stable skill identity. Trust state determines what the skill is allowed to do.
License
Original Brali knowledge is available for non-commercial reuse under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Keep attribution, canonical record link, evidence state and skill mode.